Minimum-wage hikes do close restaurants. Just not the ones you care about
By Caitlin Dewey
April 24 - The Washington Post
An increase in the minimum wage does cause restaurants to close, a
new study suggests. But only a certain kind of restaurant: the ones that
patrons already liked less.
The study, a working paper by Dara Lee Luca at Mathematica Policy Research
and Michael Luca at the Harvard Business School, analyzed almost 10 years of
Yelp rating and closure data from more than 30,000 San Francisco Bay area
restaurants. By comparing closure rates to user ratings and the timing of the
regionfs multiple minimum-wage increases, the Lucas, who are married, were able
to determine how the hikes impacted a restaurantfs chances of closing.
Those chances varied widely by the restaurantfs popularity, concludes the
study, which was sponsored by Yelp. Among 3.5-star restaurants, every $1
increase in the minimum wage increases the restaurantfs chances of closing by 14
percent. But five-star restaurants donft experience that same effect.
gYou are losing something from the market,h Michael Luca acknowledged. gBut
what youfre losing is the lower-quality businesses.h
The Lucas' results speak to a critical question in the debate over
minimum wage: Whom will higher wages hurt in the wider economy? While this data
doesn't address questions of jobs or unemployment, which many other studies have
done, it does suggest that the impact on business may be less confined than
some critics have expected. Rather than handicapping successful businesses,
higher wages appear to shorten the time before unsuccessful businesses close.
And because there's a great deal of churn in the restaurant industry, new
restaurants frequently replace the old ones.
Luca has a few theories on why minimum-wage hikes might impact low-quality
restaurants more than high-quality ones. For starters, five-star restaurants
generally have better service. (Thatfs a component of the Yelp score.) It makes
more economic sense for a restaurant that values and depends on good service to
invest more heavily in its workforce.
Lucafs data also suggests that five-star restaurants are generally more
profitable: that makes them less susceptible to market shocks, and more likely
to stay open at any wage level. A three-star restaurant would also be more
vulnerable, Luca said, to something like sudden increases in rent.
gAt any wage level, some businesses are doing well and some arenft,h Luca
said. gIf youfre closest to the margin already, then something like a
minimum-wage increase is more likely to push you over the edge.h
Importantly, Lucafs study did not look at the impact of wage increases on
employment — something he emphasizes. Because food service is a high-churn
industry, in which restaurants open and close and employees move around all the
time, the fact that one restaurant closes does not necessarily mean more people
will be unemployed.
There is also little correlation between a restaurantfs Yelp rating and its
price, Luca cautioned. While it may be tempting to come away from his results
with the impression that low-end restaurants — and employees — face more risk,
that is not consistent with the data, Luca said.
In his sample, the average restaurant had a tenure of almost six years, a
rating of 3.6 stars, and a price indicator of 1.6 gdollar signsh — Yelp-speak
for roughly $22 per head.
According to Yelp, nearly half
of all the reviews on its platform give five stars. Roughly one-third
award three stars or less.
gIf anything, the study shows that a higher minimum wage might make the
market more competitive and reduce the number of poor performers,h concluded
Paul Sonn, the general counsel and program director at the National Employment
Law Project. gSome firms are better at adjusting to competitive pressure than
others.h
Whether the restaurant industry needs more competitive pressure is, of
course, a matter of debate. Running a restaurant is already a delicate business,
with more
than half of all restaurants shuttering in their first year. And lately, the
industry has faced added competition from delivery services, supermarkets and
convenience stores, which have all stepped up their ready-made meal games.
A February
report from NPD Group, a market-research firm, found that the number of U.S.
restaurants fell two percent in 2016, and that the number of restaurants per
capita is at its lowest in a decade.
That backdrop has made the debate on the minimum wage even more fractious.
The restaurant industry is the second-largest private-sector employer in the
country, according to the National Restaurant Association, and it employs the
largest share of minimum-wage workers of any business.
Advocates for a higher wage argue that a hike would reduce poverty and inject
billions of dollars into the economy, even if some businesses have to adjust.
Critics, on the other hand, have cited studies like the Lucas' as evidence that
a higher wage would result in even more restaurant closures and, possibly,
layoffs.
In a statement, Cicely Simpson, the executive vice president of policy and
government at the National Restaurant Association, described minimum-wage
increases as a threat to jobs, small businesses gand the overall economy.h
gThis study shows that government mandates price some businesses out of the
market,h said Dan Mitchell, a senior fellow at the Cato Institute, a libertarian
think tank that opposes minimum-wage increases. gWhich is exactly what theory
tells us.h
Luca, for his part, warns against drawing any sweeping conclusions from his
work. He doesnft see it as a clear point for or against the minimum wage — more
like a clarification of something economists already knew. A wage hike has to
hurt someone, somewhere: This helps nail down who will
be impacted.
gNow we know what kind of trade-offs we're dealing with,h he said.